西太平洋银行认为英国经济受政治主导

2018-11-23 09:07 来源: 作者:佚名

  西太平洋银行:英国经济受政治主导;

  ① 西太平洋银行(Westpac)研究分析师蒂姆.里德尔(Tim Riddell)指出,英国最近的民调显示首相梅的支持率有所回升,但主要政党的支持率仍然非常接近,所以难分胜负;

  ② 首相梅试图化解党内派系纷争以避免其不信任投票生效和他们可能会失去的提前选举;然而,形势依然严峻且保守党领导权面临挑战的风险依然很高;如果一旦发生,可能导致无协议脱欧;

  ③ 由于这种不确定性是如此之高,有越来越多的商业投资和消费活动面临被推迟的风险;

  ④ 由于脱欧结果前景不明,英镑的表现同样面临不确定性;首相梅的脱欧协议获得通过则对英镑影响的将是积极的;更多的不确定性或无协议脱欧将拖累英镑;

  ⑤ 这种二元风险意味着越来越难判定英镑的走势

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